The One-Step Principle: Performative Model Selection under Perceived Admissibility Parity

Scientific models can be performative: Their uptake may alter the phenomena they represent. Existing debates on performativity have not provided a criterion for model selection when models perceived to be in admissibility parity differ in their foreseeable performative effects. Using game-theoretic models of proenvironmental behavior as a test case, I introduce the One-Step Principle: a conservative constraint on performative model selection. The principle permits replacing a pessimistic model with a more optimistic alternative only under conditions of salience, favorable conditions for self-fulfilling performativity, and proximity to the model it replaces.