Bus Service Effectiveness and the Built Environment: A Spatial Cost-Effectiveness Analysis with Smart Card Data

Compared with conventional evaluations that focus on bus service demand, bus service effectiveness (SEV) emphasizes both the demand and supply dimensions of service. However, knowledge on spatial cost-effectiveness analyses of SEV and its relationship with spatial factors such as the built environment remains limited. Using smart card data from Shanghai, this study investigates how the built environment affects bus SEV using a slack-based efficiency measure and machine learning models. The results reveal that less bus ridership does not necessarily equate to lower bus SEV. Population and employment density show distinct effects on bus SEV, with employment density exhibiting a threshold effect at 5,000 jobs / km 2 . These findings offer insights for planners to design targeted built environment interventions that enhance SEV and underscore the importance of adopting a more spatially cost-effective evaluation framework that goes beyond bus ridership alone.