Effects of Climate Change on Coffee Yields of Smallholder Farmers and Their Adaptation Strategies in Bunyangabu District, Western Uganda

This study examined the effects of climate change on coffee yields of smallholder farmers and their adaptation strategies in Bunyangabu District, Uganda. The study was guided by three specific objectives: to assess coffee yields over the past decade in relation to climate change, to examine the relationship between climate change and coffee yields, to identify key factors influencing production, and to explore adaptation strategies employed by smallholder farmers. The study used a convergent mixed-methods approach involving 392 farmers was employed using surveys and qualitative interviews. The findings revealed a significant decline in coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District, with 69.6% of farmers reporting reduced production over the past decade. A downward shift in productivity was observed, where 46.4% of farmers who previously produced 501–1000 kg had declined to below 500 kg, while 64.7% of those previously producing 1001–1499 kg had moved to lower yield categories. Climate variability was identified as the major perceived driver of yield changes (71.2%, χ² = 70.296, p < 0.001). The study concludes that climate change has significantly contributed to declining coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District through rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and increased pest and disease occurrence. Although farmers recognise climate risks, adaptation remains limited due to constraints such as inadequate access to climate-resilient varieties, water resources, financial support, extension services, and climate information. The study recommends strengthening climate-smart agriculture through improved extension systems, investment in water harvesting and irrigation infrastructure, promotion of resilient coffee varieties, provision of affordable financing and insurance schemes, and development of localised climate information services to enhance smallholder farmers’ resilience and sustain coffee production.