Techno-economic analysis of hydrogen production utilizing offshore wind energy using the AHP method and the Weibull distribution approximation. A case of Sakhalin Island

The study is devoted to assessing the suitability of the Sakhalin Island offshore zone for the development of a wind energy complex, with a focus on the potential production of green hydrogen. In the course of the research, the hierarchy analysis method was applied along with fuzzy logic. Criteria influencing the placement of wind farms were selected, experts in the field were interviewed to compile pairwise comparison matrices, after which the weights of these criteria were obtained. Using fuzzy logic functions, the absolute values of the parameters were unified. The territories where the construction of wind farms is undesirable were also taken into account. As a result, the final data set was obtained using the weighted linear combination method. As a result, it was possible to identify 4 zones with the best indicators of suitability for the construction of wind farms. The territories in the Gulf of Patience near the port of Poronaysk look the most promising. Based on the data collected, 8 promising locations within 4 zones have been identified. For each location, the potential amount of electricity and green hydrogen that can be produced has been calculated using the Weibull distribution model, with 6 different methods to parameter estimation. Six different turbine models have been used in the analysis. Additionally, LCOE (Levelized Cost of Energy) and LCOH (Levelized Cost of Hydrogen) calculations were conducted. As a result, the minimum LCOE calculated was 0.087 $/kWh and the lowest LCOH recorded was 7.4 $/kg. The Vestas V236-15.0 MW wind turbine demonstrated optimal performance for the study area. If actively invested in this area, this area could become an important hub for hydrogen trading in the Asia-Pacific region.