Analysis of Consumption Pattern Among Rural Dwellers in South-Western States of Nigeria

Household living standards and vulnerability in developing nations are closely mirrored in consumer spending decisions. In rural Nigeria, consumption remains heavily skewed toward basic nutrition, yet local community spending dynamics are often overlooked in macroeconomic analyses. This study examined the consumption patterns of rural dwellers across South-Western Nigeria, specifically analyzing the determinants and distribution of food expenditure relative to household income. Grounded in Engel’s Law, Keynes’ Absolute Income Hypothesis, Friedman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis, and the Life Cycle framework, the inquiry utilized a cross-sectional survey design. Primary data were elicited from 402 household heads across twelve rural communities in Ondo, Osun, and Oyo States using multistage sampling. An Ordered Logit model and cumulative binary logits were estimated alongside predictive classification evaluations. The findings indicate severe budget rigidity: 75.12% of households commit a moderately high or high share of income to food (mean = 2.943, Std. Dev. = 0.773). Econometrically, occupation emerged as the sole statistically significant driver of food-income share at the 5% level (β = 0.1262, Odds Ratio = 1.1345). Gender showed marginal significance at the 10% level (β = -0.3158, p = 0.1016, OR = 0.7293), whereas income (β = -0.0688, p = 0.4356) and perceived inflation (β = 0.2244, p = 0.2297) were statistically insignificant in the full specification (Log-Likelihood = -449.851, Pseudo R2 = 0.0134). Predictive diagnostics produced an accuracy of 51.99% (209/402) by assigning all observations to the modal category, generating zero net gain (0.00%) over the constant-probability baseline. The study concluded that, high food expenditure burdens represent a pervasive, structural vulnerability across the rural population rather than isolated demographic differences. Consequently, state governments should implement localized food price stabilization reserves, provide targeted farm-input subsidies, and deploy broad-based community social safety nets.