Inequality between cooling demand and electricity use is projected to widen through 2100

Although heat events are intensifying with climate change, residents in many countries still lack adequate cooling. This study develops a framework to quantify residential cooling inequality by assessing the mismatch between cooling demand and electricity consumption. Here we show large inequality in global cooling electricity consumption relative to demand across countries. Gini coefficients for per capita cooling electricity consumption consistently exceed 0.80 across scenarios in 2000-2100. Moreover, the top five countries account for over half of global residential cooling electricity consumption. Low-income countries experience 2.4–2.7 times more cooling degree days than high-income countries, but consume less than 3% of their per capita cooling electricity. These disparities are projected to intensify, with the proportion of global vulnerable population exposed to high heat stress with inadequate cooling conditions expected to rise from 26.2% in 2000 to 46.4–63.4% by 2100. Immediate and effective heat mitigation strategies are essential to reduce cooling inequalities and high heat stress in an increasingly warmer world. More people are projected to face high heat stress with inadequate cooling, according to a study that combines climate scenarios with machine learning estimates of residential cooling electricity consumption.