Closing the offshore window? Prioritising the green energy transition in an insecure Europe

Offshore wind power (OWP) and offshore energy hubs (OEHs) have recently become stable components of decarbonisation efforts across the EU. To this end, a plan to construct "Energy Islands" was institutionalised in Danish policy in 2020, alongside ambitions to scale up OWP capacity by 6 GW. However, in 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict altered the geopolitical landscape, rapidly changing prospects for OWP implementation. Inflation, uncertain energy market developments and annulment of an open-door scheme have negatively impacted OWP incentives in Denmark. This article utilises the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF) to analyse symptoms, barriers, and proposed solutions to this development. It identifies how offshore energy policy 'windows' in Denmark are affected by shifting geopolitical landscapes across the EU from 2020 to 2026. To assess this, a thematic analysis of discourses surrounding OWP development is conducted, utilising themes appearing in the Problem, Policy and Politics streams of the MSF to frame the analysis. Data was gathered from six public events focusing on OWP development and from two focus group discussions. A document analysis of relevant policies and literature is conducted to support findings. Results indicate that the OWP window of opportunity has been at risk of closing due to significant shifts in deployment capabilities. Policy adaptations and new regulations can help mitigate geopolitical uncertainty and keep it open.