The Relationship Between Powerball Jackpot Size and Lottery Sales in Texas: Evidence from 2022–2025 Data

In recent years, Powerball jackpots have reached exceptionally high levels, attracting substantial public attention and raising questions about how jackpot size is related to lottery ticket sales. This study examines the relationship between large Powerball jackpots and ticket sales in Texas from 2022 to 2025. Monthly Powerball net ticket sales are combined with historical advertised jackpot data, resulting in a sample of 48 monthly observations. The maximum advertised jackpot in each month is used as the main measure of jackpot size. The results show a strong positive association between jackpot size and ticket sales. A $100 million increase in the maximum monthly jackpot is associated with approximately $6.24 million higher monthly Powerball ticket sales in Texas. Additional analyses using the average monthly jackpot and a $1 billion jackpot threshold are conducted to test the robustness of the main relationship. The positive association remains when the alternative jackpot measure is used, while the evidence of a separate $1 billion threshold effect is only suggestive. Overall, the results show that unusually large Powerball jackpots are closely associated with higher ticket sales, although the findings should be interpreted as associations rather than causal effects.