Analysi̇s of the Hydrometeorologi̇cal Condi̇ti̇ons of the Karabakh Regi̇on of Azerbai̇jan i̇n the Context of Modern Cli̇mate Change

The Karabakh and Eastern Zangazur economic regions of Azerbaijan contain diverse surface and groundwater resources that play an important role in the development of agriculture, settlements, energy production, and ecosystems. At the same time, changing climatic conditions, increasing water demand, and anthropogenic pressures are creating new challenges for the assessment and sustainable management of regional water resources. This study investigates recent changes in hydrometeorological conditions and evaluates their influence on the formation and availability of water resources in the Karabakh and Eastern Zangazur regions. Long-term observed and reconstructed hydrometeorological data were analyzed using statistical, interpolation, analogy, and GIS-based approaches. Particular attention was given to changes in temperature, precipitation, evaporation, river runoff, and the main components of the water balance. The study also applies the Comprehensive Water Balance Method (CWBM), which integrates hydrological calculations with GIS technologies, satellite information, and modern modeling approaches to assess water-balance components under different environmental conditions. The results indicate a general increase in temperature and a decrease in mean annual precipitation compared with the reference climatic period. These changes are associated with reductions in annual river runoff in a number of river basins, while seasonal redistribution of runoff is also observed. The reconstructed hydrological series provide additional information for areas with insufficient observations and improve the basis for regional water-resource assessment. The results contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of climate-related changes in water availability and provide a methodological basis for integrated and sustainable water-resource management in the study region.