FHAT Technical Note 057: SOXL Post-FOMC Rebound Scenarios — Block Analogs, Cycle Half-Life, and the Event-Expectation Hypothesis

This technical note evaluates conditional rebound trajectories for the triple-leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL) surrounding the October 28, 2026 FOMC rate decision, following a 52.8% decline from 169.83 to a provisional regular trading hours (RTH) low of 80.215. Employing daily-chart block analogs and standardized root-mean-square distance (RMSD) across 8 technical dimensions, the note establishes 2026-07-29 (RMSD 0.75) and 2026-09-16 (RMSD 1.16) as twin primary templates, while framing a testable Event-Expectation Hypothesis: "Pre-Event Capitulation" (fear-first selling exhaustion) versus "Post-Event Relief" (hope-first rebound). Cycle dynamics are quantified via the FHAT half-life (5 sessions; ratio 0.42), benchmarked against 30 historical decline legs since 2017. Multi-tiered resistance fields are mapped through Fibonacci retracements confluent with daily and 4-hour moving averages (Layer 1: 96.6–99.5; Layer 2: 103.5–109.1; Watershed: 123.4–126.1). The framework integrates micro-liquidity execution audit data from October 26 (D−2) and enforces the strict condition that all upside scenarios depend on preserving the 80.215 RTH baseline.