Key result
COVID-19 pandemic linked to ~6% lower incidence of type 2 diabetes in Sweden.
Why the study?
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on type 2 diabetes incidence and how they differ across population groups by sex, age, or migration status remained poorly understood and unexamined in Sweden.
Cohort
Yes
In Sweden, the incidence of diagnosed new-onset type 2 diabetes transiently declined during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly among adults aged 65 and older and native-born individuals, likely reflecting disrupted health-seeking behavior.
Background The COVID-19 pandemic profoundly affected health care provision for chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes. However, its effects on type 2 diabetes incidence remain poorly understood, particularly how they differ between population groups, which has not yet been examined in a Swedish context. We aimed to investigate trends in type 2 diabetes incidence in Sweden from 2016 to 2022, and to explore whether potential changes in type 2 diabetes incidence associated with the COVID-19 pandemic varied by sex, age, or migration status. Methods Quarterly incidence rates of new-onset type 2 diabetes were calculated from individual-level register data for a dynamic population consisting of all adults (age ≥ 18 years) in Sweden during 2016–2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020–2022 (pandemic). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for each pandemic year were modelled in multivariable Poisson regression analysis using the pre-pandemic years as reference, adjusted for age, sex, migration status, season, and long-term annual trend. Stratified and interaction analyses were performed based on age, sex, and migration status. Results Overall, the incidence of type 2 diabetes showed an increasing underlying linear trend of 3.6% (IRR 1.036, 95% CI 1.028, 1.045) between 2016 and 2022. During the pandemic (2020–2022), the overall type 2 diabetes incidence decreased by 6% relative to the underlying linear trend (IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91, 0.97). The decrease was strongest in 2020 (IRR 0.90, 95% CI 0.87, 0.94) compared to 2021 (IRR 1.03, 95% CI 0.99, 1.06) and 2022 (IRR 0.95, 95% CI 0.91, 0.99). The decline in type 2 diabetes incidence in 2020 was most pronounced among individuals 65 years and older and in the native-born Swedish population. Conclusions During the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden, a decline in incidence of type 2 diabetes was observed that varied in magnitude by sex, age, and migration status. This finding may reflect differential but transient changes in health-seeking behaviour during the initial phases of the pandemic. Our results underscore the challenges of maintaining continuous health care for non-communicable diseases during a major health crisis in society, highlighting the need to ensure equitable access for vulnerable groups such as older persons.
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Andreasson et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in New-onset type 2 diabetes. COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-2022) vs. Pre-pandemic period (2016-2019) was evaluated on Incidence of new-onset type 2 diabetes (IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.97). The COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-2022) was associated with a 6% decrease in overall type 2 diabetes incidence in Sweden relative to the underlying linear trend (IRR 0.94; 95% CI 0.91-0.97).
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