A minimal model of a forest after neutral theory

Community ecology seeks the mechanisms underlying biodiversity, and simplified models can reveal them. Neutral ecology exemplifies this approach, but it doesn't distinguish species, limiting its capability for forecasting and prediction. We address this by developing a predictive, minimal model for forest dynamics. We show in a neotropical forest plot that environmental variation couples to the community as a single common effect on all species' growth rates. Life history acts on that variation, forecasting species' gains and losses a decade ahead. Finally, immigration, coupled to competition and life history, allows us to predict long-run species abundances. Simple rules thus govern the dynamics of this forest: competition, immigration, and the effect of the environment on growth. Beyond that, species are set apart by their life histories alone.