How dictators leave peacefully: understanding non-resistant exits and their consequences

Autocracy research has comprehensively examined irregular, or coercive, removals of dictators, largely overlooking the logic and consequences of their regular exits. Here, we hone in on a particular type of regular exits, namely non-resistant departures. First, we develop a typology of four distinct forms of non-resistant regular dictator step-downs – downshifters, liberalizers, acquiescers, and good losers – and derive expectations about their post-tenure fates. Second, we introduce new data that distinguish genuinely non-resistant exits from those involving a degree of resistance by the incumbents. Among regular exits from 1960 to the present, roughly one quarter involve some form of resistance. The remaining three-quarters – 107 autocrats, or nearly one-third of all autocrats – exit without resistance. Drawing from our newly collected data combined with illustrative case studies, we show that non-resistant exits indeed encompass four distinct scenarios, from weakened leaders leaving after electoral defeat or through an elite consensus to strong rulers managing controlled successions or initiating liberalization. Third, we show that, compared to those who resist, dictators who leave office in a non-resistant manner are twice as likely to avoid negative post-tenure consequences. Overall, our findings highlight that how autocrats leave power matters: non-resistance constitutes a distinct and relatively safe mode of exit.