Determinants of Purchase Channel Choice and the Economic Efficiency of E-Commerce Tools for Small Footwear Businesses: Evidence From a Multinomial Logit Model in Uzbekistan

This study identifies the factors determining consumers' choice of footwear purchase channel (online, offline, or mixed) and evaluates the economic efficiency of e-commerce tools for small businesses in Uzbekistan's footwear industry. Using survey data collected from 501 respondents in 2026, purchase channel choice is modelled using multinomial logistic regression, with the online channel serving as the reference category. All estimates were obtained using Stata 17.0. The model is statistically significant (LR χ² = 181.62; p < 0.001; McFadden's pseudo-R² = 0.181; AIC = 936.01). Product type emerges as the strongest determinant: for slippers and everyday footwear, the relative risk of choosing the offline channel is 10.1 and 7.4 times higher, respectively. Monthly buyers are 76% less likely to choose the offline channel, while users of the Payme and Paynet payment systems demonstrate a pronounced preference for online purchasing (RRR = 0.31 and 0.28, respectively). Uncertainty regarding footwear size and fit is the primary barrier to online purchasing (41.7% of respondents). A scenario-based assessment of four priority solutions at "ZOLUSHKA STYLE" OK indicates that the least costly solutions generate the highest returns: an accurate size chart combined with visual content (ROI = 222.0%) and a Telegram bot integrated with a customer database (ROI = 168.3%). In contrast, expansion through marketplace channels yields the lowest return (ROI = 21.0%; CLV/CAC = 1.86). The combined economic effect of the four solutions amounts to UZS 36.05 million, equivalent to 39.9% of the enterprise's net profit. According to the trend model (R² = 0.997), the share of e-commerce in Uzbekistan's retail trade is projected to reach 7.0–12.0% by 2030, depending on the scenario (8.5% under the baseline scenario). The study proposes an empirically grounded sequence for adopting e-commerce tools in small businesses: first, improving the quality of their own sales channels and strengthening customer retention, followed by expansion into external platforms.