Governing Blue Carbon Projects Across the Project Life Cycle (JKP Counties)

AbstractBlue carbon projects in mangrove and seagrass ecosystems are promoted as a way to finance coastal conservation while delivering community benefits, yet the literature has focused far more on carbon stocks and market prices than on how projects are governed and delivered. This paper develops a Spatial Risk and Delivery-Performance Framework (SRDPF) for blue carbon projects across the six Jumuiya ya Kaunti za Pwani (JKP) counties of coastal Kenya. It draws on a structured synthesis of secondary evidence: government and research estimates of mangrove and seagrass extent, published carbon-stock studies, project-level reports from Mikoko Pamoja, Vanga Blue Forest and the Lamu initiative, and the Climate Change (Carbon Markets) Regulations, 2024. The framework has three components: (i) a county-level Spatial Risk Index built from five risk domains; (ii) a seven-stage governance model of the blue carbon project life cycle; and (iii) a Delivery-Performance Index linking governance to credit issuance, revenue realisation, benefit distribution and permanence. A provisional county application shows that ecological pressure is concentrated where reported degradation is proportionally highest (Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu), while documented delivery experience is concentrated in Kwale. Five testable propositions are advanced. The central argument is that governance at the tenure, monitoring and benefit-distribution stages, and not2carbon stocks alone, is likely to determine whether credits are delivered and communities benefit. The paper closes with a validation design (GIS-based risk mapping, Delphi weighting and a PLS-SEM survey of project actors) and implications for county governments, regulators and developers.