Spatiotemporal evolution and influential indicators of coupling coordination between new quality productive forces and high–quality development of the construction industry

Against the backdrop of China’s ‘Dual Carbon’ goals and the strategic opportunity to develop new quality productive forces (NQPF), coordinated development between NQPF and the high-quality development of the construction industry (HQDCI) has emerged as an important pathway toward regional sustainability. This study examines the coupling coordination degree (CCD) between NQPF and HQDCI across 30 Chinese provinces from 2014 to 2023 and constructs comprehensive evaluation systems for both subsystems. The combined weighting-TOPSIS method is used to measure their development levels. By integrating the CCD model, exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), random forest (RF) and SHAP interpretation, this study evaluates coordination levels, reveals spatiotemporal patterns, and identifies influential indicators and regional differences in their model-based contributions. The CCD increased from 0.352 (mild imbalance) in 2014 to 0.453 (near imbalance) in 2023 and displayed an ‘east-high, west-low’ spatial pattern. Moran’s I showed strengthening spatial agglomeration, particularly after 2021. LISA analysis indicated a persistent High-High cluster in the Yangtze River Delta and Low-Low clusters in parts of western China. The RF results show that the ten most influential indicators (e.g., robot installation density, per capita number of patents, number of urban bridges, and technology market turnover) collectively explain 76.69% of the total feature importance. Regional SHAP analysis further uncovers heterogeneous mechanisms: eastern regions rely on intelligent infrastructure integration, central regions on economic scale leveraging scientific-educational resources, western regions require endogenous R&D investment and digital infrastructure and northeastern regions prioritize connotative urban renewal.