Conflict casualties, resource structures, and spatial spillovers in Thailand’s Deep South

Whether casualty rates in border insurgencies are conditionally interdependent across connected districts remains insufficiently understood. This article models district-level casualty rates in Thailand’s Deep South using spatial econometric panel models. The results reveal significant positive spatial dependence in conflict casualties. In the SAR and SDM specifications, the spatial autoregressive coefficients are ρ = 0.229 and ρ = 0.211. Temple and mosque densities are associated with casualty rates at different spatial scales. The findings also reveal temporal heterogeneity in spatial dependence and offer an empirical approach for analyzing casualty patterns in border-insurgency settings.