Price Regulation, Reimbursement Design and Public Financing as Determinants of Access to Cancer Therapeutics: Evidence from the 2025–2026 Policy Cycle

This study examines how price regulation, reimbursement design and public financing are reshaping access to cancer therapeutics, and what that implies for the growth path of the global cancer therapeutics market to 2030. It combines the market figures of Next Move Strategy Consulting with primary evidence from 2025 and 2026: Medicare negotiation and international benchmark rebates, United States pharmaceutical tariffs, the European Union joint clinical assessment procedure, India's 2026–27 budget, the World Health Organization essential medicines list, and filings by Merck, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Bristol Myers Squibb and Gilead Sciences. Next Move Strategy Consulting (2026) values the sector at USD 189.79 billion in 2024 and projects USD 326.05 billion in 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 9.4%. The central finding is that volume growth, driven by ageing populations and expanding indications, is being decoupled from price growth, because governments now attach rebates, tariffs and assessment hurdles to the most heavily used drugs. Revenue is migrating toward formats that sit outside, or are delayed within, the new rules: subcutaneous formulations, antibody-drug conjugates, radioligand and cell therapies. Access gains in lower-income systems depend on procurement and tax instruments. For investors and decision-makers, the evidence signals concentration risk in a few Medicare-exposed brands, a widening gap between regulatory and reimbursement timelines, and a premium on manufacturing location and evidence packages.