From uncertainty to innovation: how energy uncertainty fuels R&D activities

This study investigates how energy uncertainty relates to corporate innovation in China, where rising energy volatility and sustainability concerns have intensified firms’ strategic responses to external uncertainty. Using panel regression analyses, we find that high energy uncertainty is positively associated with firms’ R&D activities, suggesting that firms respond proactively to energy-related risks by increasing innovation efforts rather than reducing them. We further identify the cost of goods sold as a potential channel, indicating that rising input costs may incentivize firms to pursue innovation to improve operational efficiency and productivity. This positive relationship is significantly stronger among state-owned enterprises and firms located in low-carbon pilot cities, highlighting the important moderating role of institutional support and environmental policy. Extending the analysis to patenting activity, we find consistent evidence that energy uncertainty increases both green and non-green patent outputs. Overall, our findings have policy implications for the role of institutional support and sustainability-oriented policies in promoting innovation in uncertain energy conditions.