Staged dual-network supply chain reconfiguration under escalating geopolitical disruptions

We examine how global manufacturers reconfigure internal production networks and external supply chain relationships to sustain resilience and long-term viability amid escalating geopolitical disruption. Drawing on 42 semi-structured interviews with senior supply chain managers and industry experts across sectors and regions, we develop a process explanation of dual-network adaptation. Real options reasoning frames reconfiguration as a progression from reversible, option-preserving responses towards irreversible structural commitments. Institutional theory explains how geopolitical pressures constrain legitimate choices, while information processing theory illuminates how firms evaluate and coordinate them across networks. We find that disruption is experienced as an ongoing condition of corridor instability, regulatory reinterpretation, and growing legitimacy concerns rather than a single operational shock. Firms initially rely on rerouting, buffering, and multisourcing but undertake structural redesign when disruptions become persistent, recurrent, and correlated across alternatives, rather than merely severe. The findings explain how governance, coordination, and viability concerns shape staged dual-network reconfiguration.