Introduction Large-scale forest disturbances caused by bark beetle outbreaks, windstorms, and climate change have created extensive forest clearings that require rapid reforestation. In practice, however, reforestation is frequently delayed by shortages of seedlings, labor, and financial resources. Such delays accelerate soil degradation, reduce the productivity of future forest stands, and increase long-term restoration costs. Although pioneer tree species are widely recognized for their ecological benefits, their role as an economically efficient emergency reforestation strategy has received little attention. Methods This study develops a simulation model to evaluate the long-term economic performance of alternative reforestation strategies under post-disturbance conditions. Using detailed data from Czech forestry, the model simulates 160 years of forest development while incorporating silvicultural operations, harvesting, timber revenues, varying levels of soil degradation caused by delayed reforestation, and stochastic variation in forest characteristics and market conditions. Eight alternative reforestation strategies, including direct sowing of birch, planted birch, and two-phase regeneration combining birch with beech, are evaluated using free cash flow, net present value, and internal rate of return. Results The results demonstrate that direct sowing of birch substantially reduces establishment costs while maintaining favorable long-term economic performance. Among the broadleaved alternatives, birch consistently provides the highest economic returns and remains financially attractive even under increasing soil degradation associated with delayed reforestation. Although Norway spruce generates higher expected timber revenues under historical price conditions, these returns are accompanied by substantially greater ecological and production risks that are not reflected in conventional financial indicators. The simulation further shows that establishing pioneer birch stands followed by subsequent conversion to beech represents a viable strategy that combines rapid site stabilization with long-term forest diversification. Discussion These findings suggest that birch should not be regarded merely as a temporary pioneer species but as a strategic component of climate-resilient forest management. The proposed simulation framework provides a practical decision-support tool for selecting economically efficient emergency reforestation strategies following large-scale forest disturbances and can readily be adapted to forest ecosystems beyond the Czech Republic.
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Viskotová et al. (2026) studied this question.
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