Transformation of Russia's monetary system under sanctions restrictions

Subject. Patterns of functioning of the monetary system of the national economy in conditions of exogenous shocks and sanctions restrictions. Objectives. To identify structural shifts in the balance sheets of Russian banks, to determine the mechanism of transmission of monetary impulses, to assess the stability of the financial architecture and the effectiveness of monetary policy in the face of exogenous shocks and sanctions restrictions. Methods. The research is based on methods of statistical time series analysis, structural decomposition and econometric modeling using stationarity tests and cointegration analysis. Results. The endogenous nature of the money supply has been empirically confirmed, where the credit activity of the banking system determines the dynamics of the money supply regardless of changes in the monetary base. The existence of stable long-term equilibrium relationships between credit and money supply has been revealed, which persist despite short-term volatile fluctuations and time series gaps. It has been established that the banking system acts as a key shock absorber for external shocks, ensuring the continuity of financial intermediation through the advanced formation of reserves and the structural reorientation of foreign exchange portfolios in favor of the national currency. It has been found that the processes of de-dollarization have an irreversible structural character, strengthening the sovereignty of monetary policy. Conclusions. The scientific novelty lies in the application of an integrated approach to assessing the transformation of the financial sector in the face of exogenous shocks and substantiating the need to revise classical monetarist models of monetary circulation, which is of fundamental value to the academic community and practical importance to regulators and financial market participants in order to ensure long-term macroeconomic stability and the stability of the financial system.