Understanding Leapfrog Development for Better Urban Governance: Agent-Based Modeling and Parcel-Level Evidence

Leapfrog development occurs when distant parcels are built while closer developable land remains vacant. It is an urban-governance problem because infrastructure and service obligations can be extended outward before existing service areas are fully used. We extend an agent-based model of a thinly traded land market so that buyers value nearby open space by how long they expect it to persist. In the simulations, open-space preference alone leaves a sharp urban edge, whereas a graded valuation of expected persistence produces a gradual urban-rural gradient; an announced phasing schedule can also produce it, depending on settings. Distance-rising development fees and heterogeneous agricultural rent do not. A 2015–2023 parcel panel for Sedgwick County, Kansas, shows a gradual decline in developed share, from about 95% within three miles of downtown Wichita to below 10% beyond thirteen miles. The pattern is consistent with the expectation scenarios and inconsistent with the sharp-edge scenarios, although wider than any simulated scenario. Policy experiments suggest that enforced phasing yields compact development, at some cost in housing supply, whereas phasing that is announced but not enforced spreads it. For local governments, credibility, not announcement, appears to be the lever.