Utility-Scale Solar and Sustainable Local Development in Vietnam: Economic Effects, Community-Level Non-Traditional Security, and Local Governance

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The rapid expansion of utility-scale solar power raises questions about whether local economic gains translate into sustainable local development when community-level non-traditional security (NTS) conditions are considered. This mixed-methods study combines district-level Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey data (2010–2022), propensity-score matching, and Callaway and Sant’Anna staggered difference-in-differences with a survey of 100 households, open-ended responses, and 18 interviews in Phuoc Huu commune. Community-level NTS is examined through benefit distribution and livelihood pressures, community security and stability, and local governance and information transparency. At the first observed treatment wave, the employed share increased by an estimated 5.2 percentage points, while the project-relevant wage-income proxy showed a positive effect equivalent to 27.2% of its immediately preceding pre-treatment mean; both effects were statistically significant. Later event-time estimates were statistically insignificant, and non-farm household income showed no statistically significant post-treatment effects. In the survey, 81% perceived limited long-term livelihood creation, and only 16% positively assessed opportunities for community participation. Community evidence also highlights uneven benefit distribution and limited community influence and institutional responsiveness despite relatively better information provision. Integrating quasi-experimental estimates with community-level NTS, the study shows that measurable local gains need not imply broad, persistent, and inclusive sustainable local development.