Analysing the Valencian DANA through interregional trade linkages

On 29 October 2024, Spain suffered one of the most destructive natural events in its history. Heavy rains and floods concentrated in few municipalities in Valencia province caused 230 casualties in Valencia. This study offers a first assessment of the economic consequences. Using a unique dataset on interregional trade and tourist flows at the municipality level and linking it to a wide interregional–intersectoral model, we estimate the economic impact that such a local shock may have had for all regions in Spain and the rest of Europe. The baseline scenario reaches a −0.13% decrease in Spain’s value added, with a –0.92% for the Valencian Community, which can be expanded to −1.60% in severe alternative scenario, or to a −0.21% in the mild scenario.