Assessing the impact of land use and land cover changes on land surface temperature and urban resilience in Jakarta, Indonesia (2005–2025)

This study explores the relationship between Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and Land Surface Temperature (LST) in Jakarta from 2005 to 2025, by leveraging Landsat imagery, correlation analysis, and municipal-level temporal change and resilience assessment. The objective was to quantify LULC transitions, evaluate thermal variations across classes, and identify resilience patterns at the municipal scale. It was found that built-up areas expanded by 17.8% (380.63 km² to 448.89 km²), vegetation declined by 23.3% (236.98 km² to 181.90 km²), and waterbody decreased by 27.5% (36.76 km² to 26.64 km²). Correlation matrix results confirmed statistically significant differences across the time scale. Vegetation showed a significant increase in LST between 2005 and 2015 ( t = −3.69, p < 0.001), followed by a significant decrease between 2015 and 2025 ( t = 4.95, p < 0.001). Built-up areas similarly recorded a significant warming from 2005 to 2015 ( t = −9.64, p < 0.001) and significant cooling from 2015 to 2025 ( t = 8.99, p < 0.001). At the municipal-level, maximum LSTs rose from 39.8 °C in West Jakarta (2005) to 43.7 °C in North Jakarta (2025), with Central Jakarta’s density contributing a +7.8 °C increase, East Jakarta’s sprawl adding +7.7 °C, and North Jakarta’s coastal exposure causing the steepest rise (+9.6 °C). The findings demonstrate rapid urbanisation and vegetation loss alongside temporal and spatial variability in LST. This framework offers a transferable model for tropical megacities, supporting conservation of blue–green infrastructure and guiding climate-resilient urban planning policies.