Statistical Analysis of the Relationship Between the Efficiency of a Production Organization and Its Financing Structure

The article examines the results of a study devoted to analyzing the experience of jointly addressing two key tasks of financial management in commercial organizations: forming the capital structure and maximizing financial efficiency. Solving the first task affects the well-being of shareholders and the value of the business, while solving the second one ensures the competitiveness and sustainable development of the organization. The lack of a generally accepted approach to addressing these tasks together makes research in this area relevant. The aim of the work is to analyze the presence of a non-linear statistical relationship between equity and debt capital, on the one hand, and business efficiency, on the other, as well as to describe it in a form, convenient for practical use. The study is motivated by the significant role of manufacturing companies in the economy of the Russian Federation, the unprecedented sanctions pressure of 2021–2023, the lack of consensus on the direction of this relationship, and poor understanding of its nonlinear nature. The empirical basis is the financial statements of manufacturing organizations prepared in accordance with Russian accounting standards (RAS). The scientific novelty lies in the application of a methodology that makes it possible to generalize the data, obtained in previous researches, taking into account the nonlinear relationships between indicators based on the automatic specification of the model. The results of the empirical part of the study allow us to conclude that there is a significant non-linear relationship between various categories of liabilities and business efficiency, which is robust to the composition of the data. Significant differences in the impact of long-term and short-term liabilities have been identified: moderate levels of borrowing contribute to increased efficiency, whereas an unlimited increase in liabilities leads to its decline. The obtained results can be used as methodological recommendations when developing an organization’s financial development strategy and making management decisions.