Assessing the Physical Feasibility of a Solar-Dominant Net-Zero Pathway in India: Electricity Demand, Land Availability and Critical Mineral Constraints

Achieving India’s 2070 net-zero target will require rapid expansion of renewable electricity, with solar power expected to play a dominant role. However, the literature lacks an integrated framework that jointly examines electricity demand growth, land constraints, and critical mineral dependence. This study evaluates whether a solar-dominant electricity pathway for India remains viable when long-run demand growth is evaluated alongside land and critical mineral constraints. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with urbanisation as the long-run driver and GDP per capita as a short-run factor, electricity demand is projected to 2070 under Low, Base, and High scenarios. The results indicate that urbanisation acts as a strong structural driver of long-run electricity demand in India. These projections are translated into required solar capacity and evaluated against India’s available barren land and global silver reserves. The analysis show that higher demand scenarios push solar capacity into the multi-terawatt range, creating substantial pressure on both land availability and silver supply. Taken together, the findings reveal a land-mineral paradox in which attempts to reduce land use through higher-efficiency photovoltaic technologies may intensify dependence on critical minerals. The study underscores the importance of integrating demand moderation, spatial planning, and material-efficient technologies in solar transition strategies.