Modelling and Economic Evaluation of a Solar-Assisted Crude Oil Heating System for Flow Assurance in Pipeline Transportation

Crude oil transportation in the Niger Delta requires effective thermal management to maintain flow assurance. Heat loss, wax precipitation, and increasing viscosity can restrict crude-oil flow and increase operational risks. This study developed an analytical techno-economic framework for solar-assisted heating of a representative 20 km crude-oil pipeline using Nigerian crude-oil properties and Niger Delta solar-resource data. Evacuated-tube collectors and a sensible-heat storage tank were sized, and a 25-year lifecycle cost analysis compared the hybrid solar-plus-gas system with gas-fired and electric-heating references. The model estimated a heating demand of 1.78 MW (15,622 MWh annually); polyurethane-foam insulation contributed 82.7% of total pipeline thermal resistance. An 8,549 m 2 collector field with 3,490 modules and a 546 m³ storage tank achieved an annual solar fraction of 38.7%. The solar system required USD 3.22 million in capital investment. After including supplementary gas for the 61.3% of annual demand not met by solar, and costing the conventional references against the full annual demand, the estimated annual OPEX was USD 139,840 for solar-assisted heating, USD 351,589 for gas-fired heating, and USD 1.698 million for electric heat tracing. Over 25 years at a 10% discount rate, the corrected lifecycle costs were USD 4.860 million, USD 5.594 million, and USD 17.316 million, respectively. The solar-assisted system had an estimated positive NPV of USD 0.734 million relative to gas-fired heating, an incremental-capital simple payback of 4.8 years, and a discounted payback of approximately 6.9 years. Its LCOH was USD 0.0343/kWh, about 13.1% below the gas-fired reference and 72.0% below electric heat tracing. Monte Carlo analysis using a simplified cash-flow formulation yielded a 100% probability of positive NPV for the investigated parameter distributions. The findings indicate potential for solar-assisted pipeline heating, but supplementary heating remains essential during low-solar periods. Pilot-scale validation and further assessment of hybrid backup strategies are recommended.