Energy Security and the Caspian Status: A Quantitative Analysis of Public Strategic Risk Perceptions

This study combines legal analysis with empirical data on public risk perception to examine the impact of the Caspian Sea legal regime on Azerbaijan’s energy security. While the 2018 Aktau Convention is a milestone, unresolved delimitation issues and environmental concerns continue to pose strategic risks. Using a survey of 433 participants and statistical analysis (Factor Analysis, Regression), the study reveals that Geopolitical and Cyber risks are the main drivers of overall risk perception. Furthermore, regression results show that increased awareness of environmental and security risks is significantly associated with public support for the transition to renewable energy sources. The results suggest that ensuring Azerbaijan’s long-term energy security requires not only resolving legal disputes in the Caspian, but also accelerating green energy diversification to reduce perceived environmental and geopolitical threats.