Financial Feasibility of Investment in the Development of Kubu Alvian Guest House

This study reassesses the financial feasibility of investing in the development of Kubu Alvian Guest House in Denpasar by reanalyzing historical data and examining sensitivity in present-value terms. The descriptive quantitative case study draws on documented occupancy and room-rate data for 2011 2017, an initial investment of IDR 4,135,040,000, a 20-year analysis horizon, and a discount rate of 12%. Recent literature and Bali tourism statistics for 2026 inform the discussion. The analysis comprises trend re-estimation, capacity checks, cost reconciliation, net present value (NPV), benefit cost ratio (BCR), and sensitivity tests involving one or two variables. The linear model indicates an annual occupancy increase of 1.6675 percentage points, yet its extrapolated values exceed 100% from 2035 onward. The reported NPV of IDR 701,159,080 and BCR of 1.084 are arithmetically reproducible if total discounted costs include the initial investment. Under this interpretation, the investment reaches break-even when the present value of benefits falls by 7.74% or subsequent costs rise by 16.61%, with all other variables held constant. If the reported costs exclude the initial investment, NPV falls to −IDR 3,433,880,920. The documented internal rate of return of 13.56% and payback period of three years and three months cannot be verified without annual cash-flow data. Financial feasibility is therefore conditional. Cost classification, revenue consistency with physical capacity, and updated operating data require validation before the findings can support current investment decisions.