The Role of Unofficial Diplomacy in Promoting Arctic Security

The deterioration of Arctic cooperation following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine exposed the limits of traditional diplomacy and created a need for alternative channels of communication. This paper examines the contribution of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy’s High North Talks (HNT), a Track II dialogue initiative established to maintain exchanges among Arctic stakeholders during a period of diplomatic paralysis. The study assesses the extent to which the HNT has advanced Arctic security and identifies the principal challenges that are likely to shape the region’s future. The paper argues that informal diplomacy can help reduce tensions by preserving communication, fostering mutual understanding, and developing confidence-building measures even when formal political relations remain strained. Through dialogue on governance, security, and science, the HNT has generated policy proposals, explored military confidence-building mechanisms, and promoted cooperation on environmental and scientific issues. At the same time, Arctic security is increasingly influenced by broader geopolitical developments, including weakened arms control arrangements, nuclear risks, Greenland-related tensions, hybrid threats, shipping-route competition, and resource governance challenges. The paper concludes that while Track II diplomacy cannot resolve major strategic disputes, it remains an important tool for confidence-building, risk reduction, and preventing escalation in an increasingly contested Arctic.