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The Neolithic Y-chromosome bottleneck (~7-5 kya) saw male effective population size collapse while female (mtDNA) diversity expanded. Existing explanations invoke continent-wide male kin warfare [1] or patrilineal fission with drift [2], but neither incorporates female agency. We present a three-method quantative framework in which female-led sexual selection, driven by female-controlled economic production, generates the bottleneck endogenously. Method 1 (Morningstar-Cobb-Douglas Method) models community yield from environment, female-guild technology, male labour, and structural drag. Method 2 (Morningstar Selection Method) converts yield differentials into relative male reproductive fitness. Method 3 (Fisher-Morningstar Wave Diffusion Method) spreads the selected Y lineage as a travelling wave. We parameterize seven haplogroup-technology pairs (α = 0.65-1.00) under a 30:70 adult sex ratio, an exogenous parameter. Five starburst runs converge to 95% lineage frequency in 65 generations at selection intensity S = 0.7, matching the 60-70 generation target; the J (herding) control produces no burst. R1a and R1b, sharing one technology at 𝛼 =1.00 but diverging in geography and timing, produce identical results- a replication test. Sensitivity analysis reveals failure boundaries (drag collapse at D = 45,000; saturation at ~95% adoption; selection floor S ≈ 0.2). The model is falsifiable with archaeological predictions.
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Lilly Morningstar (2026) studied this question.
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