Toward sustainable development: a convergence analysis of the embodied carbon efficiency of China’s provincial economic infrastructure

Low-carbon infrastructure is pivotal to green and sustainable development. This study investigates the convergence properties and club heterogeneity of embodied carbon efficiency of economic infrastructure (ECEI) across China’s provinces. Building on a joint-production framework, we apply non-radial directional distance function to measure ECEI and use kernel density estimation to track its dynamic evolution. The results indicate that although ECEI improves over time, it remains low in most provinces, and interprovincial gaps have narrowed, yet persist. Using the club convergence algorithm, provinces are grouped into four convergence clubs. Our findings reveal persistent efficiency disparities across these clubs, suggesting that the lower-efficiency clubs may face a heightened risk of the “Matthew effect.” Theil decomposition indicates that intra-club imbalances in ECEI emerge as the primary catalysts of regional disparities. Our findings provide implications for government in designing emissions-mitigation strategies for infrastructure and offer support for emerging economies confronting the pressures of green transition.