Local-resolution risk assessment for tropical cyclones: toward global adaptation – EGU25 poster

This record contains the poster presented at the EGU General Assembly 2025 (EGU25), held in Vienna, Austria, and online on 27 April–2 May 2025, in session ITS4.6/CL0.11 (abstract EGU25-6917). Adaptation information for tropical cyclones (TCs) is usually provided at national level, while adaptive capacity varies widely within countries. The poster presents global, local-resolution risk indicators developed in the TRANSCLIMA project. TC regions are identified from changes in the highest TC category and in the frequency of major and minor TCs between a historical period (1980–2017) and a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5, 2015–2050), using STORM synthetic tracks. These hazard indicators are combined with exposed population (2020 population and growth to 2050 under SSP5) and a TC-related adaptive capacity indicator built from local experience, national insurance coverage and ND-GAIN readiness, following the IPCC AR6 risk framework. The result is a tropical cyclone under climate change risk index (TC3-risk index) used to identify risk hotspots across the different TC regions. Abstract: Odériz, I. and Losada, I. (2025). Local-resolution risk assessment for tropical cyclones: toward global adaptation. EGU General Assembly 2025, Vienna, Austria, 27 Apr–2 May 2025, EGU25-6917. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu25-6917 This work is part of the TRANSCLIMA project (Detection and Global Risk Assessment of Coastal Transitional Climate and Neo-Climate Regions in a Warming World), funded by the European Union's Horizon Europe research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101111262 (HORIZON-MSCA-2022-PF-01).