Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Security: Implications for Macroeconomic Stability and Household Welfare

This article examines inflation dynamics in Uzbekistan and their role in national monetary security. Using official data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the National Statistics Committee, it traces the fall in annual inflation from 15.2% at the end of 2019 to 7.3% at the end of 2025 and 6.4% in September 2026. The article shows that disinflation under inflation targeting has strengthened macroeconomic stability, but the 5% target has not yet been reached, inflation expectations remain high, and food, energy and service prices still erode household purchasing power. Recommendations focus on anchoring expectations, coordinating fiscal and tariff policy with monetary policy, and protecting low-income households.