Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics

This study aimed to identify a lesson design that could help elementary school students become aware of the ambiguity of Japanese verbal expressions of likelihood. A qualitative case study was conducted with 30 fifth-grade students. In a lottery-drawing lesson, students interpreted repeated simulation results, selected verbal expressions, represented the perceived likelihood on a number line, and compared their interpretations with those of their classmates. Video-recorded classroom interactions and worksheets were analyzed using observable indicators aligned with three lesson objectives. Ten students described characteristics of their own interpretations, 19 recognized that the same expression could represent different likelihoods for different people, and 11 referred to the trial frequency–likelihood relationship. Combining repeated simulations, visual representations, and peer comparisons appears to support reflection on verbal probability before the introduction of formal numerical probability. This study extends research on verbal probability to Japanese elementary mathematics and offers a design for early probability instruction.