From Natural Hazard to Psychological Impact: An Integrative Conceptual Model of the Role of Geographical Determinants in Psychological Vulnerability to Natural Disasters in Libya

The psychological fallout of natural disasters is rarely a direct function of the event's physical severity. Instead, it emerges from a complex interplay between hazard characteristics, localized spatial conditions, institutional efficacy, and the psychosocial resources accessible to affected populations. This paper seeks to construct an integrative conceptual model that elucidates how geographical determinants shape psychological vulnerability to natural disasters within the Libyan context. Employing a conceptual model-building methodology, this study conducts a narrative and analytical review of theoretical literature, recent systematic reviews, and localized Libyan studies focusing on the 2023 Derna floods. Core constructs were refined, relational dynamics were derived, and testable theoretical propositions were formulated. The proposed model delineates three interconnected domains: geographical hazard determinants that dictate exposure and intensity; institutional and built-environment factors that moderate the trajectory from hazard exposure to tangible losses; and mediating mechanisms such as displacement, livelihood disruption, and the erosion of social support that translate physical exposure into psychological distress. Furthermore, psychosocial resources (e.g., self-efficacy, coping mechanisms, social cohesion) are posited to moderate these pathways. The model introduces "place identity" as a distinct pathway, illustrating how prolonged displacement and the obliteration of familiar landmarks exacerbate psychological vulnerability. Psychological vulnerability to disasters is a multifaceted spatial, social, and psychological construct. The proposed framework lays the groundwork for future empirical validation, spatial vulnerability mapping, and the integration of mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) into disaster risk reduction (DRR) strategies in Libya.