An exploration of post-COVID household vehicle ownership in the USA using panel data: An application of the generalized ordered logit model

Vehicle ownership is a key determinant of auto use, but while much COVID-19 research has focused on shifts from public transit to driving, changes in household vehicle ownership itself have received little attention. This study examines pre- and post-COVID changes in vehicle ownership propensity among US households using panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for 2019 and 2021. A generalized ordered logit (GOL) framework is applied to model ownership changes between the two years, incorporating state dependency on 2019 ownership levels. Overall, vehicle ownership increased for 17% of households and decreased for 21%. Multivariate GOL results show that individual- and household-level demographic shifts, such as changes in marital status and increases in family size, had the largest marginal effects on ownership changes. However, even after controlling for these demographic factors, COVID-19-related variables, including financial difficulty and essential worker status, remained significant predictors of ownership change between the pre- and post-pandemic periods. Overall, the pandemic does not appear to have substantially altered vehicle ownership trends in the auto-oriented US context. Nonetheless, certain population segments, particularly households with essential workers, may face greater vehicle needs during or immediately after crises like COVID-19. These findings suggest that policies addressing transportation equity should account for demographic transitions alongside pandemic-specific stressors, as both jointly shape household vehicle ownership decisions in periods of disruption.