Beyond ROI: the sustainability paradox of tourism investment in Sub-Saharan Africa—A critical systematic review of readiness, governance, and just pathways

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) holds extraordinary natural and cultural heritage yet captured less than 2% of global tourism foreign direct investment (FDI) between 2010–2024, representing US$8–12 billion in annual lost development finance. This critical systematic review asked not merely why investment remained low, but whose development was served, at what cost, and under what conditions tourism advanced sustainable outcomes. Synthesizing 124 academic studies and 53 gray literature documents published between 2000 and 2024, the review identified six binding constraints: land tenure insecurity (73% of sources), restrictive visas (67%), infrastructure deficits (61%), corruption (58%), profit repatriation (52%), and licensing burdens (44%). Empirical evidence on sustainability outcomes remained limited, only 18% of academic studies reported sustainability-related data, with literature dominated by capital flows rather than community wellbeing or ecological integrity. To address this gap, the study introduced the Sustainable Tourism Investment Readiness (STIR) framework, reframing investment readiness around three pillars: pro-poor outcomes, ecological limits, and procedural justice. Evidence from patient capital (US$1.4 billion committed in 2023, growing at 26.8% annually) and technology-enabled ventures (seed investments US$250,000–1.5 million, internal rate of returns (IRRs) 18–45%) demonstrated that alternative approaches could align financial returns with sustainability. Such alignment required governance reforms prioritizing community land tenure, equitable benefit-sharing, and institutional accountability. The investment–sustainability paradox is solvable, but not through technocratic ease-of-doing-business reforms alone. Visa liberalization, land tenure reform, and tourism zones could improve viability by 3–5 percentage points, yet without social safeguards and ecological conditionality they risk reinforcing enclave tourism, leakage, and dispossession. The review proposed a research agenda centered on sustainability-grounded metrics and offered actionable recommendations for investors, policymakers, and development finance institutions (DFIs) seeking to align capital with just and sustainable development.