Analisis Pengaruh Instrumen Moneter dalam Menjaga Stabilitas Inflasi dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia: Pendekatan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

This research investigates the effectiveness of monetary instruments in maintaining inflation stability and supporting economic growth in Indonesia, given that both aspects are key pillars in shaping a country's macroeconomic development direction. A quantitative approach was employed, utilizing secondary data collected from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and Bank Indonesia (BI), in the form of quarterly time-series data covering the period 2013–2025. The method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), processed with the aid of Eviews software. The results indicate that, in the long run, the Interest Rate has a significant negative effect on both Inflation and Economic Growth, the Exchange Rate has a significant positive effect on Inflation but not on Economic Growth, while the Money Supply has no significant effect on Inflation but does significantly affect Economic Growth. A different result is found in the short run, where all monetary instrument variables show no significant effect on either Inflation or Economic Growth. Based on these findings, Bank Indonesia is advised to maintain consistent interest rate policy as its main instrument for controlling inflation and stabilizing long-term economic growth, while also managing exchange rate stability and money supply growth to mitigate short-term economic volatility. Unlike previous studies, which tended to analyze inflation and economic growth separately, this study offers a novel approach by integrating these two macroeconomic variables simultaneously within a single VECM framework, thereby generating more comprehensive policy recommendations for Bank Indonesia.