From proximity to access: Childcare enrollment and accessibility in Brazil

This study examines walking accessibility to daycare facilities for children aged 0–3 in Brazil using a nationwide Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (2SFCA) approach. Accessibility is measured by combining teacher supply, child population demand, and Euclidean distance thresholds adjusted for network circuity. Using data from the 2022 Demographic Census and School Census for all 5570 municipalities, the analysis relates accessibility to enrollment rates through compositional data analysis (α-transformation) and spatial regression models. Results show that while proximity to facilities is associated with higher enrollment, improvements in service capacity generate substantially larger marginal effects than the mere expansion of spatial coverage. Accessibility effects vary substantially across municipalities and decline with higher levels of urbanization. The positive association between urbanization and enrollment is strongly attenuated when accounting for spatial accessibility, suggesting that raw urban advantages are closely linked to baseline spatial provision. At the same time, the weaker translation of accessibility into enrollment in more urbanized contexts indicates the presence of additional barriers not captured by spatial measures. These findings suggest that conventional distance-based accessibility measures may overestimate effective access when capacity constraints and local frictions are not considered. Spatial accessibility emerges as a necessary but not sufficient condition for enrollment, highlighting the role of service capacity and contextual barriers in converting spatial access into actual use. Policies that expand facility coverage without addressing broader service-capacity constraints, such as staffing, classroom availability, and operating hours, are unlikely to achieve substantial gains in enrollment.