Quantifying urban heat: A spatiotemporal study of climate change and population growth in Ikorodu, Lagos, Nigeria

Climate change and rapid urban growth are increasingly altering local climatic conditions in cities across the Global South.One important manifestation is the urban heat island (UHI) effect, whereby built-up urban areas experience higher temperatures than surrounding less-developed areas.This study examines the relationship between climate change, urban growth, and rising temperatures in Ikorodu, a rapidly expanding peri-urban area of Lagos State, Nigeria.Using simulated but realistic datasets derived from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) records, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections, and Lagos State population statistics, the study analyses temperature trends from 2010 to 2024 in relation to population growth and spatial patterns of heat distribution.Findings indicate an average temperature increase of approximately 0.03°C annually, occurring alongside substantial population growth from about 1.0 million in 2010 to over 1.9 million in 2024.The analysis reveals a notable relationship between urban expansion and increasing temperatures, suggesting that rapid urbanisation contributes to the intensification of local heat conditions.The simulated heat map further indicates that the highest temperatures are concentrated in densely built-up areas, highlighting the influence of land-use change, building density, and urban form on heat distribution.The study concludes that continued urban expansion without effective climate-responsive planning could increase public health risks, energy demand, and heat-related discomfort.It therefore recommends expanding urban green spaces, promoting climate-responsive building designs, protecting natural surfaces, and strengthening sustainable landuse planning to enhance climate resilience in Ikorodu and other rapidly urbanising African cities.