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Extending Granger causality to tell a direct link from a hidden common cause: the earlier signal is whitened on the joint past, then a rank-based HCR test of residual independence with calibrated p-values is applied, which works when the innovations are non-Gaussian. Includes a one-file Python tool, a browser version, and checks on synthetic data, rivers, stock returns and microservice incidents.
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Jarek Duda (2026) studied this question.
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