The Length and Structure of Norwegian Production Chains: Evidence from Global Input–Output Networks

Global production networks create economic dependencies that extend beyond direct trading relationships. This study examines the length and geographical structure of Norwegian production chains using the OECD Inter-Country Input--Output database for 1995 and 2022. Average propagation length (APL) is combined with Leontief multipliers, hypothetical extraction, and intermediary decomposition to assess Norway's upstream production dependencies. The results reveal a modest lengthening of production chains, with 37 of the 49 comparable industries recording an increase in APL. This development was consistent with the broader trend among 12 comparison economies, although Norway experienced considerably less lengthening compared to similar mainland Nordic economies, while China and Iceland recorded reductions. Production-chain length and the magnitude of upstream requirements nevertheless capture distinct characteristics, as reflected in their declining correlation from 0.450 in 1995 to 0.156 in 2022. The EU-27 exhibits the largest aggregate structural contribution among the regional groups examined, with its hypothetical extraction reducing Norwegian upstream requirements by 26.47% in 2022. China has become a substantially more important source of upstream requirements, while its production connections with Norway involve more intermediate stages than those associated with the EU-27 or the United States. Intermediary analysis further reveals that Norway's international production connections extend through several other economies, including European countries linking Norwegian and Chinese production. These findings demonstrate that direct trade relationships and conventional linkage measures provide an incomplete account of international production dependencies. APL offers a complementary perspective on their length and geographical structure, with implications for assessing economic exposure and supply-chain resilience.