Quantifying and modeling the storm-induced orbital decay of 11 LEO satellites during 1-14 May 2024

During 1–14 May 2024, the Sun launched several Coronal Mass Ejections towards Earth, causing a series of geomagnetic storms, the strongest of which reached extreme (G5-class) intensity. These events significantly disturbed the Earth’s upper atmosphere and increased atmospheric drag. We investigate the impact of space weather on the orbital decay of 11 low Earth orbit satellites at altitudes from 474 to 1344 km. We find that satellites below ~600 km altitude experienced relative decay rate increases of about four times compared to quiet conditions, while those at higher altitudes experienced up to a twelvefold increase. Orbital response times to geomagnetic storms varied widely from 4 to 26 hours and suggest a possible dependence on storm intensity. During the extreme storm on May 10, all satellites below 815 km decayed substantially, with up to about 200 m day −1 at lower altitudes. Separately, we evaluate the potential of predicting this decay from earlier observations of the solar wind, radio fluxes, and geomagnetic indices. Our models use average response times as lead time and achieve prediction errors of up to 20 and 4 m day −1 for satellites below and above 600 km altitude respectively. Despite the limited dataset and differences between satellites, models reproduce the maximum orbital decay rates during the extreme storm of May 10. Solar wind proton temperature and magnetic field contributed most to models predicting effects on lower-altitude satellites. Overall, results of this study highlight the variable nature of the LEO orbital response to space weather across satellites, orbits, and storm conditions.