From Waste to Wealth: The Economic Case for Valorising the United Arab Emirates’ Agricultural and Food-Processing Biomass Residues Energy Production, Carbon-Credit Revenue, and Net-Zero Contribution Across Three Deployment Scenarios

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) generates an estimated 8–12 million tonnes of agriculture- and food-related organic residue each year, a stream presently treated overwhelmingly as a disposal liability rather than an economic asset. This article makes the economic case for valorising that residue and argues three propositions. First, the costliest element of any biomass value chain—collection and logistics—already exists in the UAE, because municipal waste utilities, a commercial waste-to-energy facility, agricultural extension services, source-segregation regulation, and the region’s pioneering permitted carbon-dioxide storage infrastructure are all operational. Second, three deployment scenarios—energy-only, carbon-only, and a hybrid carbon-plus-energy pathway—are evaluated for their annual contribution to national electricity supply, carbon-credit revenue, gross domestic product (GDP), and the UAE’s Net Zero by 2050 commitment. The realistic energy potential is approximately 2.2–3.0 terawatt-hours per year, equivalent to roughly 1.5–2.0% of national electricity demand, while permanent carbon removal under the hybrid pathway reaches approximately 3.6–4.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year. Third, the hybrid pathway is shown to stack two high-value revenue streams—electricity sales and durable carbon-removal credits—generating an estimated US$0.85–1.1 billion in direct annual revenue, with a broader economic footprint, including avoided disposal costs, gas-export substitution, and fertiliser import substitution, plausibly reaching US$2–3 billion per year. The carbon-credit component constitutes a genuinely new, foreign-exchange-earning In-Country Value revenue stream aligned with national diversification objectives. The article concludes that the hybrid pathway represents the optimal long-term strategy and recommends a staged deployment sequence gated on carbon-credit price thresholds and storage access.