Perceived economic effects and conditions associated with public acceptance of consumption-tax reform in Mogadishu, Somalia: evidence from a survey-based PLS-SEM analysis

This study examines perceptions of Somalia’s consumption-tax reform using a cross-sectional survey in Mogadishu’s Banadir region. The questionnaire items were mapped to Perceived Price and Consumption Disruption Effects (PPCD), Perceived Effects and Responses among Traders and Businesses (PETB), and Public Perceptions of Acceptance-Related Economic and Institutional Conditions (PPAEC). PPAEC captures respondents’ beliefs about factors that may influence tax acceptance; it does not measure the actual economic or institutional conditions or whether respondents personally accept the tax. The analysis used respondent-level observations, standardized reflective Mode A measurement, the PLS path-weighting procedure, and bootstrap resampling. PPCD met conventional internal-consistency and convergent-validity standards, whereas PETB and PPAEC did not meet convergent-validity requirements in the PLS solution. The descriptive proposition was supported because all PPCD item means exceeded the neutral midpoint. The PPCD-PETB path was statistically significant; however, because PETB lacked adequate measurement validity, this finding is treated as an exploratory score association and does not confirm the substantive latent-construct hypothesis. The PPCD–PPAEC score association was not statistically significant, and inadequate PPAEC measurement validity prevented a conclusive evaluation of H3. The findings do not measure actual acceptance, establish causality, or demonstrate exceptionally high structural relationships. The study therefore provides exploratory, context-specific evidence and emphasizes the need for construct development and independent replication. This study provides exploratory evidence on perceptions of Somalia’s consumption-tax reform among 450 survey respondents in Mogadishu. Respondents reported concerns about higher prices, reduced consumption, and lower purchasing power. These findings identify perceived affordability pressures that policymakers can investigate through public consultation and further research. The study also highlights the need for better measures of business responses and acceptance-related conditions. It does not establish actual economic effects or directly measure public acceptance. Its contribution is to inform further inquiry using representative surveys, validated measures, and administrative and market data to support evidence-informed tax reform.