Proximity over Prosperity: Income-Insensitive Visiting-Friends-and-Relatives Tourism from Central Asia to Uzbekistan

Four neighbouring countries supply more than three quarters of Uzbekistan's 11.7 million tourist arrivals, yet the poorest neighbours send the most visitors per resident. This thesis asks whether regional tourism behaves as standard income-driven demand or as visiting-friends-and-relatives (VFR) travel governed by proximity and border regimes. A structural gravity model estimated by PPML with origin and year fixed effects on 25 source markets (2018–2025) shows an income elasticity of 1.17 for distant markets but only 0.24, statistically zero, for Central Asia. Proximity and entry regimes dominate instead: a common border multiplies flows 4.4-fold and visa-free entry raises Central Asian arrivals by 146%. Regional tourism policy should therefore target border crossing and spending per visit rather than relying on neighbours' income growth.