If we can still believe the pollsters, Democrats are headed for a very good night next Tuesday. Across the United States, candidates running as Democrats are either leading or running even with their Republican opponents. That the president’s party loses ground in the midterms, often decisively, is one of the more reliable patterns in American politics. But if such a blue wave materializes, we should neither read it as voters’ repudiation of the Republican Party, nor as an endorsement of the Democrats. It is better understood as evidence that American democracy can still deliver on some, if not all, of its promises.
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Bossow et al. (2026) studied this question.
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